7 reasons why Apple will fail

Make no mistake; I think Apple does Marketing amazingly well. I wish I had owned shares in them. (I am sure Bill Gates is glad he does.)

But sycophancy that surrounds the brand needs to be tempered; this emperor is not wearing any clothes:

1. They don’t build what the customers want - they luck into it because they build what they want and that just happens to be cool. At the moment their definition of cool coincides with the dominant view.
2. There is already a sameness in the design and the processes (iPad = big iPod Touch) – so it is inevitable that the sameness will come into the thinking.
3. That (currently & apparently) unerring sense of what is hot - will leave when Steve goes.
4. They are building a walled garden that looks like paradise but will eventually prove to be a prison. They are much worse offenders than Microsoft ever was; and really harks back to the closed ecosystem of the early internet. They will get away with it as long as a lot of ‘players’ continue to  make money with them; but ultimately their philosophy is anti-internet and I think the internet will win.
5. No organisation (to my knowledge) has jumped the curve more than 3 times. They have one life left – and in internet years that is not so long. Someone will build a better mousetrap sooner rather than later.
6. A big chunk of their cool comes from being the underdog/ anti-establishment. That is brand archetype that represents the essence of Apple. The reality does not reflect that and it is only a matter of time before the cognitive dissonance begins to jar.
7. Their products are not very reliable – and after the coolness wears off, frustration sets in. I don’t know a singe owner of Apple iPhone, who is not a certified Apple fan, who will buy it again.

Comments

[Trilobyte]

Good article. Although I own no apple hardware, I do recognize that their strength lies in their good design. An analogy is my entertainment system, which requires a complex sequence of key-presses from multiple controls just to watch a DVD. Why? If I simply put a DVD into the tray, there should be enough information for the system to deduce that I want to watch it - so turn on the TV route it through. This is not rocket science.

The problem is that most technology companies don't "get it" (simplicity that is). Our lives are complex enough without having to learn all sorts of arcane interfaces. Many of us still have blinking 12:00's on our video players.

Apple succeeds because the average consumer wants simplicity and is willing to pay a premium to get it. Until the rest of the industry understands this, Apple will continue to have a monopoly.

[DennisPrice]

Right you are. And only a matter of time. too...

[Faz]

I'm not an Apple fan (so far as someone can be or not be a fan of any big multinational corp) but when my 3GS needs replacing, a new iPhone will be on the shortlist for sure - shortliost means others will be there too.
I bought the 3GS because I deemed it the best at the time, and whatever phone I deem to be the best (for me) next time, that will be the one I buy.
So I don't where you make up stuff like "I don’t know a sing(l)e owner of Apple iPhone, who is not a certified Apple fan, who will buy it again" from.
Maybe you just don't know enough people?