Will new media win the war for the minds of us?

Let’s think about the future of the prevailing media model for a moment:

  • Fact: The model is that content is controlled by the broadcaster.
  • Fact: The broadcast is largely paid for by advertising
  • Fact: Media channels are fragmenting.

The emerging media model (for better of for worse)

  • User generated content (albeit by random, unverifiable, unknown, untrained individuals)
  • Cheaper & Quicker (A basic blog is free!)
  • Not beholden to advertisers/ distributors
  • Not beholden to ‘stars’

Gharajedaghi writes (sorry forgot the title) that there are five categories of reasons as to why organisations fail: [Imagine these five as a pyramid.]

  • Imitation
  • Inertia
  • Sub-optimisation
  • Change of game
  • Shift of paradigm

The question is this:

Is it a change of game or a shift of paradigm? And does either still afford the affected organisations to save themselves?

Thomas Kuhn would turn in his grave if he knew what the modern interpretation of paradigm is, but I think even he might agree that we are facing a de facto paradigm shift.

Will traditional media organisations survive? I don’t know, but they could.

IMHO the answer does not lie with the current ‘directories’, aggregators and mash-ups. I believe the need for NEWS is a fundamental need that ultimately can only be satisfied by credible, truthful and accurate facts which are clearly separated from opinion. It is only because of the availability of the counterpoint of (relatively) factual information provided by the mainstream that we can indulge in the sweet excesses of the blogosphere. When that becomes the only diet, my guess is we will sicken of it pretty quickly.

But the old model is dying and needs some smart people to figure out. (Hint, hint.)