7 reasons why Apple will fail


Make no mistake; I think Apple does Marketing amazingly well. I wish I had owned shares in them. (I am sure Bill Gates is glad he does.)

But sycophancy that surrounds the brand needs to be tempered; this emperor is not wearing any clothes:

  1. They don’t build what the customers want - they luck into it because they build what they want and that just happens to be cool. At the moment their definition of cool coincides with the dominant view.
  2. There is already a sameness in the design and the processes (iPad = big iPod Touch) – so it is inevitable that the sameness will come into the thinking.
  3. That (currently & apparently) unerring sense of what is hot - will leave when Steve goes.
  4. They are building a walled garden that looks like paradise but will eventually prove to be a prison. They are much worse offenders than Microsoft ever was; and really harks back to the closed ecosystem of the early internet. They will get away with it as long as a lot of ‘players’ continue to  make money with them; but ultimately their philosophy is anti-internet and I think the internet will win.
  5. No organisation (to my knowledge) has jumped the curve more than 3 times. They have one life left – and in internet years that is not so long. Someone will build a better mousetrap sooner rather than later.
  6. A big chunk of their cool comes from being the underdog/ anti-establishment. That is brand archetype that represents the essence of Apple. The reality does not reflect that and it is only a matter of time before the cognitive dissonance begins to jar.
  7. Their products are not very reliable – and after the coolness wears off, frustration sets in. I don’t know a singe owner of Apple iPhone, who is not a certified Apple fan, who will buy it again.