The end of the GFC: Good times ahead

What is the Big Prediction

I predicted on 25 June 2010 that Apple will fail. (Shares are currently at a 5-year low.) That is one of my most high-profile predictions, but without getting to much wind being blown you-know-where; let’s just say I have the knack.

So, here is my next big one.

I am predicting that we are entering a Bull Market. (Some ups and downs – but overall at least 10 years of growth.) This growth won’t come in the same sectors and industries that we previously benefited from growth, so there will still be massive pain for many businesses as those industries fade into obscurity.

There is one caveat about Australia: The government is extremely meddlesome and they are tinkering with a system they don’t understand – in fact, no one can truly understand a complex adaptive system.

Most other governments have learned a lesson over the last five years – but since Australia was spared the worst of the downside, we may not have much of an upside – and there may even be some pain coming our way depending on what the government will break anytime soon. (Or they could still be lucky.)

That said; if you have used the opportunity of the GFC to become more antifragile, then you are in for a good run.

If I am wrong you will be no worse off than you are now and if I am right, you will be smiling all the way.

Lesson: Always associate with optimists.