Connecting the dots like a turkey

NN Taleb explains the turkey problem thus:

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day, Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

Of course most people who think about the future, think they are thinking when they are simply extrapolating the trends.

They are usually right about tomorrow looking like today, But the further out you go the more useful your predictions would be, the less accurate they are.

There is of course a better way - a smarter way. More about that some other time.

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